David Loses Money Tracking my adventures in making money without earning it

Recent Trades [November 2021]

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I haven’t done much trading recently: NSW coming out of lockdown + taking up flying lessons + booking holidays has drained me of my spare cash, so it’s been mostly HODL each day. All my stuff has gone up a bunch over the past two weeks, but I feel like it’ll be hit with a crash by the end of the month. The whole Evergrande problem hasn’t been resolved – really wondering when that’ll come to a head.

One annoyance that I’ll probably never get over is I sold all my Lepidico shares at the end of last FY for $0.01, making a 28% loss because I figured they weren’t going anywhere and if they did, they’d do a bunch more capital raisings to destroy the price (this happened numerous times in the years I owned it). If I’d held them I’d be up more than double now. Ah well, live and learn.

The trades I have made recently have been almost uniformly terrible and are mostly doubling down on bad ideas. Gonna try and format this differently so it looks better on mobile:

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SELL: Etsy (ETSY)

I’ve always been suss on Etsy’s viability, and I had a stop loss set on it for $200 because I was convinced the wheels would fall off at any minute. It ended up getting triggered and I sold all my holdings at $199.70, which made me 15% profit. It immediately bounced back up from that and now hovers at $272.15 at the time of writing. Whoops.

Buy/Sell: S&P VIX (VXX)

So… the rationale here was that October was an extremely volatile month as far as stonks went. I lost almost all my gains for the quarter, then pretty much immediately got them back as soon as November rolled around. The thinking was that “well, October is volatile, so I’ll take that Etsy money and put it in VXX, then profit off the volatility.” This only works in the extreme short term though, and once I’d seen the error of my ways (ie. going to bed), I sold it all at a 4.89% loss.

Buy: Boeing (BA)

It’s always been on my list as they share a duopoly in aviation with Airbus, plus things should be looking up after the 737-MAX stuff has been dealt with. Took the VXX loss and put it on Boeing, which has of writing has fallen 2.56%. I dunno, clearly this money is cursed.

Sell: Facebook (FB)

What a mess October was. I ditched this after this article made me think about how my friends and I’s use of Facebook has changed over the years, and I don’t believe the technology, social and attractiveness of Zuckerberg’s metaverse bullshit exists enough for it to be feasible (let’s face it, it’ll be Second Life 2.0). So I sold… at a 7.45% loss. I feel like the only person on the planet who has made a loss investing in Facebook. Ah well.

Buy: Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Hahahahaha. So I took the Facebook money and bought more Virgin Galactic at $20.53. It had tanked a heap so I wanted to double down – now it’s hovering around $19.22 and I’m overall sitting on a 16.08% loss, but it pinballs around a lot. A few months back I was up a tonne on it. I’m still bullish on this super long term though.

A few weeks later I bought even more at $19.62 because I hate making money.

Buy: Himax (HIMX)

This has been continually going down the shitter since I bought in back in July, but I really think it’ll turn around soon. I hope it does because yikes, I’m down 16.71% overall here.

Crypto

Crypto has gone all over the place – I think around the start of October I lost 2/3 of my gains, but now I’ve made them back. I’ve bought some stuff recently but there hasn’t been any strategy behind it other than randomly throw stuff at a wall and hope something sticks (except Cardano bby ilu):

  • Loopring
  • Monetha
  • Filecoin
  • Siacoin
  • (more) Axie Infinity
  • (more) Cardano

Other Observations

The two IPOs I bought into – Tek-Ocean and X2M Connect have absolutely shit the bed. Ouch! Down 36% and 38% on them respectively. My adventures with F45 have been a pain too – they tanked 20% last week after massively missing earnings forecasts, and Planitar died as well for no real reason. Roblox did excellently after earnings though, and Hazer has been a star for me recently too. Novonix is still going great. Tinybeans is going to hell. It’s been sliding all year, and I’ve gone from doubling my money to now losing money on them. I investigated further and it looks like they may have comprehensively botched the introduction of paid subscriptions if all the review bombing has anything to do with it. They’re listing on NASDAQ soon so I think that’ll bring in a heap more capital, and hopefully the subscription transition will keep gaining steam.

Conclusion

The one lesson I think I have learned from this is… don’t sell in September/October. Everything is a mess then (historically accurate too!)!

I’m hoping that after Christmas I’ll be able to delve back into stonks – I really want to try out Stake’s ASX stuff but just don’t have cash spare for it unfortunately. Learning to fly is absolutely not cheap – however I’m hoping that once I’ve finished dealing with the initial expenses and predictability comes into lesson fees then I can get back onto this.

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David Loses Money Tracking my adventures in making money without earning it

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