Wow! This past week has been horrible for shares. It wiped out about the past 6 weeks of gains for me, and as for Hedgefundies… oof. Seems the big dramas affecting everything are:
- Evergrande and the hot mess that will result in. It’s weird because everyone knows it’ll be a big drama when it inevitably falls apart, but there’s no real agreement on what that drama will actually be and what it will affect.
- Attempting to taper off quantitative easing. Did you know something like 25% of all the money in America came into existence in the past year or so, as part of attempts to stop the economy from imploding due to COVID? There’s no way that won’t eventually have consequences.
- US debt ceiling drama. It feels like once a year or so this is a thing and it always ends the same way, and everyone seems to forget and freak out? Yeah I’m sure the Republicans will let the US default, just like every other time they’ve threatened to and then backed down.
Did you know that historically, September is the worst month for the sharemarket? Let’s blame it all on that and be blindly optimistic for the future.
Finished the quarter up about 7%, so as far as trying to beat the ASX200 at 1.2% it was a success there. Still, the past week has been very painful – I actually started putting stop losses in place for like the first time in my life (then deleted them all later, bar Etsy and Novonix). As always, here’s the obligatory link to my portfolio page if you want to look at the performance over a longer time period.
- Novonix (199.5%): wow, this went on an absolute charge. Phillips 66 took a stake in it around the start of August and it’s been going nuts ever since.
- Aussie Broadband (60.4%): I bought this on a whim a few months back as they’re genuinely a good company, and I think could end up competing with TPG for 3rd place as far as NBN retailers goes. They announced a SPP the other week which I bought into – hopefully the price won’t tank once those shares go live.
- Life360 (34.4%): they make software that allows parents to stalk their kids, and going by my childhood that’s probably every parent’s dream. I bought into this a year or so ago as it seemed pretty solid and it’s ended up being my 3rd best ASX performer, behind Novonix and Afterpay.
- TEK-Ocean (-17%): this was my first attempt to get in on an IPO and so far it has not gone well. Ah well, you live and learn. I’m optimistic about them long term (someone has to maintain those offshore oil rigs/wind farms after all) so I’ve got no plans to sell.
- Plenti (-11.9%): I bought in at $1.50, it went up for a few weeks, then shat itself. Nothing has changed fundamentally, and I think it should eventually get around $1.80.
- X2M Connect (-8%): my second attempt to get in on an IPO! This went up 40% on the first day, then clearly the wheels fell off. I suspect the news about Evergrande combined with their core market focus being Asia has been what caused this, but who knows.
Hedgefundie’s Excellent Adventure
Urgh, the adventure has not been so excellent this past week. Basically all my gains for the entire quarter got vaporised and I’m now losing money.
Exchange rates cushioned it slightly (+2.6%) but overall… ouch. Huh, just realised that the SPDR200 and iShares ASX200 are giving different numbers even though they’re supposedly tracking the same thing… maybe I should replace the benchmarking with VAS across the board.
So this is the end of my first quarter trying HFEA, and I’ve finished with my allocations at 55.17% UPRO and 44.83% TMF. Huh. Those ratios bounced around all over the place this quarter, but ended up almost exactly at 55/45, meaning no rebalance required. How weird! If you want to see how this is going over a longer time period (which at the moment is nothing, given I only started this quarter), there’s my HFEA page.